Predicting the UK 2017 General Election

I’m no Nate Silver, nor do I aspire to be, an albeit fictional, Joey Lucas type. I don’t have access to banks of private polling data. I’m an intrigued amateur who predicted the 2015 result (a Conservative majority) with a 1% (3 seats) margin of error, while most of the professionals got it badly wrong. So I thought I’d chance my arm again.

My prediction

Overall I predict the following result for the General Election 2017:

This would give the government a small increase in their majority from 17 to 33. The big winners should be the Liberal Democrats, with the SNP and Labour losing c. 20 seats each overall.

Context

An unexpected ‘snap’ General Election was called yesterday by the UK Prime Minister, Theresa May, less than two years since the last election in May 2015. A few things have changed since then, however:

My hypotheses

My calculations

Engineer by education, Consultant by experience, Entrepreneur at heart. My professional focus is #fintech, I’m an #avgeek, + I occasionally blog about #politics